In Another Sign of Growing Desperation to Hold Ernst’s Seat, McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund’s Iowa Ad Buy is 2nd-Most For Any Republican Incumbent

Fresh off the Cook Political Report downgrading endangered Senator Joni Ernst’s re-election prospects after an Iowa poll showed her approval rating fell 10 points, Mitch McConnell’s super PAC is swooping in to bail out Ernst’s increasingly vulnerable campaign with the 2nd-largest ad buy for any GOP senator up for re-election.

McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund has reserved over $12.5 million in fall ads on Iowa airwaves, in yet another sign that after five years of putting Mitch McConnell’s agenda over Iowans, Senator Ernst’s seat is up for grabs in November.

Iowa Starting Line: New Spending Shows GOP Worried About Joni Ernst’s Race

By: Pat Rynard

March 25, 2020

  • Politico reported on Monday that the Senate Leadership Fund, the main Mitch McConnell-aligned super PAC for Republican Senate races, has booked $67 million worth of TV ads for the post-Labor Day run, including a sizable investment in Iowa.
  • Iowa is interestingly the second-largest buy of the field. Senate Leadership Fund has reserved $12.6 for Iowa media markets to help boost Sen. Joni Ernst’s reelection race. That’s behind only North Carolina, where Sen. Thom Tillis is looking particularly at-risk with a 26% approval rating; the PAC has placed $21.8 million there.
  • The large buy for Iowa is also noteworthy considering this is a smaller state with cheaper media markets compared to many others on the list.
  • The large sum of money for Iowa suggests that McConnell and national Republicans are very worried about Ernst’s chances in her first reelection race. Initial polling isn’t great for Ernst, whose approval ratings dropped ten points over the past year, but it’s also not terrible. The Cook Political report recently moved the Senate race to more competitive territory, at “Lean Republican.”
  • Ernst’s is the only one of the “Lean Republican” states that the PAC is investing so much early money into.
  • Ernst’s inclusion by top national Republicans in this buy points to Iowa being a major piece of the 2020 Senate map.

Read the full article here.