Cook Political Report Shifts IA GOV to Toss Up
Cook Political Report: Democrats have “a very real shot at winning the governorship for the first time since 2006.”
DES MOINES – Today, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report became the latest race-rater to confirm the Iowa governor’s race is a top flip opportunity for Democrats in a new analysis that moved the race to “Toss Up.”
As Cook Political Report’s Matthew Klein writes, “the political environment in Iowa appears primed for Democratic inroads” thanks to the costly tariffs hurting farmers, Kim Reynolds’ record of failing Iowans, and Randy Feenstra’s inability to clear the primary field. Feenstra has “never been a darling of the party’s populist right” and “could have a base problem heading into the general election” after he failed to get Donald Trump’s endorsement and was snubbed by Bob Vander Plaats.
Klein notes that “Democrats plan to make [Feenstra] answer for” voting to cut health care for 110,000 Iowans and put rural hospitals on the chopping block, which has already led to the closure of a medical clinic in Ottumwa.
From Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Terra Hernandez:
“Iowa Republicans know they’re vulnerable in November after Kim Reynolds and a decade of one-party rule wrecked the economy, shortchanged our schools, and ripped away access to health care. Now Randy Feenstra, Adam Steen, Zach Lahn, Brad Sherman, and Eddie Andrews are staring down a nasty showdown in June while they double down on the same insider-first failures that have left working families behind. Iowa voters are ready for something new and will reject the failed status quo this November.”
Read more from the Cook Political Report here, or key points below:
- National GOP operatives acknowledge they’ll have to spend heavily in Iowa to stay in the hunt. As a competitive general election looms, this race shifts from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
- The political environment in Iowa appears primed for Democratic inroads. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have had an outsized impact on the state’s economy, which is heavily reliant on corn and soybean exports to foreign markets. And retiring Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds’ approval rating has been underwater for more than a year, partly due to a school voucher initiative that has caused budget challenges in multiple major public school districts. Democrats notably flipped two conservative state legislative seats in special elections last year, one of which broke the GOP’s supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
- [Feenstra’s] had to spend valuable resources on TV to secure his lead over four other rivals and introduce himself outside of his home base in northwest Iowa, while Sand has enjoyed the benefits of a clear field. Feenstra has dropped $2.5 million on ads so far — a huge chunk of the cash he had on hand heading into this year.
- … He’s never been a darling of the party’s populist right; Feenstra famously ousted controversial then-Rep. Steve King in the 4th District’s 2020 Republican primary. One of the key players that helped Feenstra over the finish line in that race — The FAMiLY Leader, a socially conservative advocacy group led by Bob Vander Plaats — is now backing Adam Steen for the nomination instead.
- [Steen] hasn’t been shy about attacking Feenstra for “his inability and unwillingness to talk to the taxpayers” by skipping debates, at one point bluntly asserting, “If Feenstra is the candidate, Rob Sand is your next governor and we are toast as a state.”
- … The fact that [Feenstra] hasn’t cleared the field — and that he continues to take aggressive fire from several sides — suggests he could have a base problem heading into the general election.
- Assuming Feenstra wins on June 2, Democrats plan to make him answer for his support of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation threatens to push 110,000 Iowans off of Medicaid and jeopardize rural hospitals across the state, with Democrats noting that one clinic in Ottumwa has already been shuttered since the bill passed. They also plan to skewer Feenstra for accepting campaign contributions from Syngenta, an agrichemical company owned by a Chinese state-run enterprise.
- … Everything that could go right for Democrats here has so far, giving the party a very real shot at winning the governorship for the first time since 2006.
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