FOUR POINTS FOR THE FUTURE: The Path Back to a Blue Iowa in 2020

Iowa Democrats are feeling bullish about the chances of turning Iowa blue for the 2020 Election. After a the losses in 2016, Iowa Democrats came roaring back to make significant gains and flip an office at the state level and win by nearly four points at the Federal level.

These margins enabled Iowa Democrats to flip not one but two of Iowa’s four Congressional Districts, sending Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne as the first women from Iowa to the U.S. House of Representatives.

While Iowa Democrats will keep fighting for votes in every corner of the state, these results give us a great foundation for success in 2019, 2020, and beyond.

In honor of those four points, here are the four indicators that are lighting the fire under Iowa Democrats for the 2020 election cycle.

Iowa Democrats were a force to be reckoned with in all four of Iowa’s Congressional Districts on November 6^th. 

1,303,278 Iowans voted in the Congressional elections this year.
50.4% of those Iowa voters chose to send Democrats to Washington D.C. while only…
46.6% of Iowans chose Republicans.

That’s a 3.8% margin of victory for Democrats in 2018.

This marks a significant shift from 2016 when…
53.7% of Iowans chose Republican members of Congress to the…
44.5% who chose Democrats.

That was a 9.2% margin of victory for Republicans in 2016.

Comparing Iowa votes for members of Congress in 2018 to 2016, that’s a…
13 point swing TOWARDS Democrats in less than two years of full Republican control in D.C.

These results show us that not only can Democrats win Federal Elections statewide, but that Donald Trump should be very worried about his prospects in Iowa in 2020.

Comparing Trump’s 2016 results to the 2018 Federal results:
Trump’s margin of victory in Iowa was 9.6% in 2016.
Democrats margin of victory at the Federal level in 2018 was 3.8%.

That’s a 13.4 point swing away from Trump towards Democrats in less than two years.

The 2018 election results somewhat mirror the most recent approval numbers from the Iowa Poll:

45% of Iowans have a favorable view of the President while a healthy majority at…
52% have a mostly unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Donald Trump.

HISTORIC GUBERNATORIAL
The 2018 gubernatorial race was the closest in generations, with only 3 points separating Governor Kim Reynolds and Fred Hubbell.

By contrast, in 2014 Governor Terry Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Reynolds won by 21.8 points.

That’s an 18.8 point swing TOWARDS Democrats.

Additionally, Fred Hubbell set a record for total number of raw votes won by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Iowa.

For years, Iowa Republicans have relied on massive margins in Iowa’s 4^th District to propel them to statewide victory, but J.D. Scholten proved beyond a doubt that Democrats can compete in rural Northwest Iowa.

Scholten’s campaign helped increase raw voter turnout in the 4^thdistrict in all but 4 counties, even as the population in rural counties is rapidly shrinking. That translated to a nearly 20 point swing TOWARDS Democrats in the 4^th District.

In 2016, Congressman Steve King won by 22.6 points.

In 2018, Scholten came within 3 points of unseating King in a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 39% to 25%.

“Two years ago people wrote off Iowa as a red state, but in 2018 Iowa Democrats proved them wrong. We are incredibly proud of the work that our candidates, activists, and volunteers did over the last two years to put this state back on track. We are going to build upon our successes and learn from the races where we came up short. We have a solid foundation to build upon, and I know that this team can and will win in 2020,” said Iowa Democratic Party Chair Troy Price.